- 1Probabilities: the basics
Sample spaces and events, Combining events, Set-theoretic vs logical operators, On non-measurable sets, Mutual exclusivity, joint exhaustiveness, Probabilistic independence, Probabilistic independence is not mutual exclusivity
- 2Probabilism
Assigning Probabilities, Epistemic irrationality, The Probability Axioms (again), So what went wrong?
- 3Conditional probabilities and Conditionalisation
Defining conditional probabilities, Conditionalisation, A visual explanation of conditionalisation, The multiplication rule and total probability, Bayes’ theorem, Bayes factors
- 4Dutch book arguments
What a Dutch book argument is, The betting interpretation of credences, The Dutch book theorem, Finite Additivity Dutch Book for Myopic Choice, Sophisticated choice, Can the book be repaired?, From the theorem to an argument for probabilism, It’s not about the money