- 1Three proofs from week 2
The law of total probability, Bayes’ theorem, The odds form
- 2Newcomb's problem
Two boxes, Newcomb’s problem (with added demons), The case for two-boxing, The case for one-boxing, The obvious table, Are these the right states of nature?, Should states of nature satisfy probabilistic independence?, Probabilistic and causal independence, Why they came apart, Two state conditions, two theories
- 3Evidential and causal decision theory
Evidential decision theory: formulation 1, Evidential decision theory: formulation 2, Newcomb, on the evidential theory, Causal decision theory, Dependency Hypotheses, Newcomb’s dependency hypotheses, Utility
- 4Evidential versus causal decision theory
Causey and the LAN outlet, Evidentia and the prediction unit, Why ain’cha rich?, The lesion, The tickle defence